Mizani Kenya has released a report identifying lawmakers who stand a strong chance of being re-elected if elections are held at present.
According to the findings, only 131 out of the 290 current members of parliament would retain their seats, reflecting a significant potential shift in Kenya’s legislative landscape.
Focusing on the Ukambani region, the report indicates that 12 out of the 20 elected lawmakers could successfully defend their positions.
The report highlights Mavoko MP Patrick Makau a third-term MP would get a fourth term with a substantial 83.1% probability. He is followed by Yatta MP Robert Basil a first-time MP, who has a 77.3% chance of re-election, indicating strong voter support.
Mwingi Central’s Gideon Mulyungi ranks third in the region, with a 76.3% chance of returning to parliament, closely followed by Mbooni MP Erastus Kivasu, who has a 76.0% likelihood of re-election. The two are currently serving their second terms.
Kathiani MP Robert mBUI rounds out the top five with a 74% re-election probability, showing robust backing from his constituents.
Other notable lawmakers from Ukambani include Paul Nzengu of Mwingi North, who has a 71% chance of re-election.
Matungulu MP Stephen Mule also features in the list with a 68.3% probability.
Suzzane Kiamba of Makueni constituency and Caleb Mule of Machakos Town constituency are also in the mix, with 66.5% and 63.8% chances of being re-elected, respectively.
Last on the list are Kitui Rural MP Paul David Mwalika, Kitui West MP Edith Nyenze, and Kitui central lawmaker Makali Mulu. The three got 60.5%,60.1 %, and 59.0% respectively.
